Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.062970 0.071066 0.079316 0.088322 0.097848 0.107598 0.118304
2025-09-28 0.050255 0.062186 0.074900 0.089324 0.105116 0.121769 0.140555
2025-10-05 0.045846 0.060765 0.077183 0.096304 0.117704 0.140692 0.167038
2025-10-12 0.038172 0.054531 0.073157 0.095428 0.120888 0.148709 0.181057
2025-10-19 0.033475 0.051112 0.071791 0.097055 0.126427 0.158947 0.197168
2025-10-26 0.028991 0.047423 0.069682 0.097446 0.130234 0.166972 0.210566
2025-11-02 0.025728 0.044899 0.068682 0.098892 0.135046 0.175962 0.224894
2025-11-09 0.022323 0.041832 0.066742 0.098978 0.138076 0.182754 0.236592
2025-11-16 0.018192 0.037339 0.062672 0.096186 0.137458 0.185138 0.243075
2025-11-23 0.014724 0.033378 0.058994 0.093636 0.136931 0.187465 0.249347
2025-11-30 0.013015 0.031826 0.058377 0.094841 0.140875 0.194980 0.261577
2025-12-07 0.011689 0.030717 0.058262 0.096615 0.145460 0.203213 0.274611
2025-12-14 0.010921 0.030536 0.059536 0.100370 0.152741 0.214954 0.292131
2025-12-21 0.009446 0.029008 0.058842 0.101518 0.156787 0.222867 0.305225
2025-12-28 0.009833 0.030771 0.062898 0.108995 0.168805 0.240400 0.329709
2026-01-04 0.008023 0.028343 0.060729 0.108060 0.170152 0.245015 0.338879
2026-01-11 0.007060 0.027347 0.060589 0.109799 0.174844 0.253647 0.352791
2026-01-18 0.005921 0.025812 0.059533 0.110216 0.177797 0.260126 0.364112
2026-01-25 0.005135 0.024879 0.059330 0.111760 0.182163 0.268308 0.377449
2026-02-01 0.004184 0.023376 0.058135 0.111852 0.184600 0.274085 0.387874
2026-02-08 0.002908 0.020700 0.054861 0.108870 0.182919 0.274694 0.391998
2026-02-15 0.001916 0.018314 0.051863 0.106145 0.181474 0.275518 0.396319
2026-02-22 0.001536 0.017603 0.051658 0.107433 0.185318 0.282912 0.408586